Gaps and Needs Assessment
In Spring 2025, MaineHousing commissioned Housing Innovations to conduct a comprehensive statewide Gaps and Needs Assessment on behalf of the Maine Continuum of Care (CoC). The assessment used data-driven system modeling to evaluate the gap between Maine’s current homelessness response resources and the level of capacity required to operate an optimally designed system capable of effectively addressing homelessness statewide.
The analysis drew upon multiple data sources, including the 2025 Point-in-Time (PIT) Count, HMIS system utilization reports, HUD System Performance Measures, and Coordinated Entry System (CES) access data from all nine regional planning hubs. All numbers are estimates of what future homelessness is expected to be.
This assessment includes:
- HMIS-based enumeration
- Data from victim service providers who are prohibited from
contributing data to HMIS
- School-aged children experiencing homelessness according to the US Department of Education definition.
- Populations experiencing homelessness but not
included in HMIS
Over the course of the year, Housing Innovations engaged MaineHousing, nonprofit providers, hub coordinators and persons with lived experience to ensure the assessment reflected both quantitative system modeling and qualitative insight from across Maine’s homelessness response system.
Findings confirm that Maine’s homelessness response system is significantly under-resourced relative to current demand. The analysis estimates that approximately $136 million annually in additional investment would be required to operate a fully optimized system capable of meeting the needs of all individuals and families experiencing homelessness in Maine.
Given ongoing uncertainty related to federal Continuum of Care funding levels and the unlikelihood of substantial new near-term investment, Maine must strategically identify where limited additional resources can achieve the greatest system-wide impact. The findings underscore that targeted, coordinated investments across multiple system components will be necessary to improve outcomes and reduce the overall scale and duration of homelessness.
The scale of homelessness in Maine has grown steadily, with projections for 2026 based on annual rates of increase from 2020 through 2025. The majority (78%) of those experiencing homelessness are single adults, with the remaining 22% being families with children. Without sufficient shelter and rehousing capacity, many Mainers are forced nightly into cars, abandoned buildings, or dangerous and exploitative living situations.
- 17,000 people expected to experience homelessness in Maine in 2026
- 11,500 households impacted (78% single and 22% families)
- Affordable Housing Supply: Renter households paying 50%+ of income on rent rose to over 15% statewide (2015–2025). Expanded vouchers and affordable housing development are essential system supports
****Please refer to attached narrative for more details on the total number of people expected to experience homelessness in Maine in 2026
Key Findings:
- Permanent Supportive Housing (PSH) represents the largest resource gap, particularly for single adults experiencing chronic homelessness. Addressing this gap will require focused statewide prioritization and strategic investment. This is especially critical as HUD COC funds, the backbone of our homeless response system and how the majority of PSH units in Maine are funded, remain at risk.
- All nine regional hubs demonstrate measurable capacity gaps, though Cumberland County shows the most significant unmet need, including an estimated 749 additional PSH units along with other permanent housing options targeted toward single adults.
- Maine cannot shelter its way out of homelessness. Expansion of affordable housing supply and rental assistance vouchers is essential to complement homelessness system interventions and achieve sustainable exits to permanent housing.
- System optimization requires balanced investment across the full housing crisis response continuum, including outreach, emergency shelter, rapid rehousing, permanent supportive housing, and prevention. Expansion of any single intervention in isolation will not achieve projected system outcomes.
- PSH move-on strategies, workforce capacity, and cross-system coordination function as force multipliers. Strengthening pathways that help households transition from PSH to more independent affordable housing, expanding provider workforce capacity, and improving coordination across healthcare, behavioral health, corrections, and mainstream benefits systems will significantly increase the effectiveness of existing and future investments. Without these system enablers in place, additional housing resources and financial investments will not achieve their full intended impact.
- Strategic prioritization of limited new resources will be critical to improving system performance, reducing inflow into homelessness, increasing successful transitions to stable housing, and ensuring that new investments produce measurable, system-wide impact.
Here is a link to the 4 page Executive Summary of the Report.
This document summarizes how the 17,000 figure was calculated:
Here is a link to the full Gaps and Needs Assessment Report: